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East vs West Follow Up
In my last post, I included a detailed breakdown of how the two conferences have matched up against one another so far this season and, on the basis of the data, concluded that there wasn't much to...
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EV Data for Games 1 - 692
The spreadsheet that should appear below contains detailed EV data at the team level for games 1 to 692. As NHL.com has inexplicably failed to publish play-by-play data for the following games, they...
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Even Strength Outshooting and Team Quality
Readers familiar with the team even strength data that I've published over the course of the season might wonder why I seem to place a large amount of emphasis on even strength shot ratio with the...
View ArticleEV Data for Games 1-820
[If you're having difficulty viewing the document, click here to view the spreadsheet directly at googledocs.]NotesThe document contains three worksheets. The first sheet shows even strength data for...
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Shots, Fenwick and Corsi
From time-to-time, I'll find myself surfing aimlessly throughout the hockey blogging world in search of articles, discussions, and other interesting stuff. In doing so, I'll occassionally find that...
View ArticleEV Data for Games 1-939
[If you're having difficulty viewing the document, click here to view the spreadsheet directly at googledocs.]NotesThe document contains three worksheets. The first sheet shows even strength data for...
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Loose Ends - Part I: Predicting Future Success
My plan is to put out a series of posts - hopefully all within the next while - that relate to subjects that I've posted on previously. The object of these posts is to address certain outstanding...
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Loose Ends - Part II: Score Effects and Minor Penalties
Back in November of last year, I looked at whether there were any score effects in relation to minor penalties. The conclusion? Playing from behind has a significant positive effect on powerplay...
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Loose Ends - Part III A: The Power Play
[EDIT:It appears that I made an error when calculating the skill standard deviations for EV and PP shooting percentage at the team level. The tables and numbers referenced in the post have been edited...
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Loose Ends - Part III B: The Power Play
This is basically an extension of my previous post, which looked at whether team talent differences in terms of shooting percentage are larger on the powerplay or at even strength.The purpose of this...
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Cumulative Score Tied Corsi
I plan to put up a post on the probabilities for each 1st round series either tomorrow or Wednesday during the day. In the meantime, I figured I'd throw up these charts showing the cumulative score...
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1st Round 1011 Playoff Probabilities
The information in the table is pretty straightforward - it simply shows each team's probability of advancing as well as the probability of winning in a particular number of games. So, for example,...
View Article1st Round 1011 Playoff Predictions
VAN - CHII reckon the Blackhawks are the strongest 8th seed that the league has seen since the current playoff format was adopted in 1994 (runner up: 1995 New York Rangers). Very tough matchup for...
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Playoff Outcome Probabilities
Self Explanatory. Based on each team's expected winning percentage, as shown here..
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2nd Round 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions
[ For an explanation, see here ]VAN - NSHThe Canucks get a slightly easier draw here as compared to round one. The skill difference between these teams is smaller than what the regular season results...
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Loose Ends - Part III C: The Power Play
[EDIT: The table relating to the penalty kill was labeled incorrectly and suggested that I was looking at shorthanded scoring ( I accidentally put 'PKSF/60' and PK 'GF/60' instead of PKSA/60' and...
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Team Effects and Even Strength Save Percentage
The extent to which a goaltender's team has an impact on his save percentage - and, in particular, his even strength save percentage - has received some attention in the hockey blogging world in the...
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Team Effects and Penalty Kill Save Percentage
In yesterday's post, I looked at the extent to which team effects contribute to the variation in even strength save percentage between individual goaltenders.The results were somewhat inconclusive. On...
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3rd Round 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions
VAN - S.JAnother extremely even matchup. The relevant facts, as I see them:S.J probably has the better powerplay - they generate a ridiculous number of shotsVAN very likely has the better goaltender...
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Team Even Strength Shooting Talent
A while back, I received a comment relating to how my playoff probability model accounts for teams that are outliers with respect to shooting percentage, with the 2009-10 Washington Capitals offered as...
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Stanley Cup Finals 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions
It all comes down to this.The best team in the West against the best team in the East.*For the 6th straight year, the Western representative appears to be the stronger team. That's not really...
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More on Team EV Shooting Ability
About a week ago, I put up a post on team even strength shooting percentage, which included a chart showing what the underlying talent distribution in that area probably looks like. I've reproduced the...
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Predicting Playoff Success
It's often said that the playoffs are a different ball game as compared to the regular season - that some teams are built for the playoffs whereas others are not.The above statement can be evaluated by...
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Predicting Playoff Success - Part Two
Rob Vollman raised an interesting question in the comments section of my last post, that being whether my findings precluded the possibility that some teams consistently perform better or worse in the...
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How often does the Best Team Win?
This year’s Stanley Cup Final concluded with a somewhat surprising outcome.The Vancouver Canucks – who were widely regarded as the league’s best club – were defeated by the underdog Bruins. To those...
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